The article by Mark Handler, a former police officer and independent polygraph examiner, discusses base rates of guilt and their effect on outcome confidence when the world’s top two most accurate credibility assessment tools are used for testing in succession.
LEHI, Utah – May 12, 2016 – An article in the March 2016 Journal of the American Association of Police Polygraphists (AAPP) examines how the outcome confidence in testing reaches as high as 99 percent when the world’s top two lie detection technologies, the polygraph and EyeDetect by Converus, are both used to test the credibility of a person. Outcome confidence is an estimate of positive predictive value, which is the degree of confidence in a test result when a person obtains a deceptive test score.
The article, titled “Low Base Rate Screening Survival Analysis & Successive Hurdles,” was written by AAPP Research & Information Chair Mark Handler. Handler, considered an expert in polygraph with over 50 published scientific articles on polygraph and credibility assessment, previously worked as a police officer. He’s currently an independent polygraph instructor and researcher. Handler also serves as editor-in-chief for the American Polygraph Association (APA) and is a recent addition to the Converus Advisory Board.
“I chose to use EyeDetect and polygraph because these two credibility assessment tools have the highest peer-reviewed published accuracy and error estimates of any psychometric tests,” said Handler. “EyeDetect and polygraph measure different reactions. Polygraph measures breathing movement, sweat gland activity, blood pressure changes and vasomotor activity. EyeDetect measures eye blink, pupil diameter, answer behaviors and reading behaviors. These two tests are different and for the most part independent.”
Handler’s article takes a close look at base rates, which is a measurement of a specific condition within a testing population, and the outcome confidence of a test result, which is a metric that can provide a lie detection examiner with the most appropriate information to determine whether a subject is lying or not. The combining of two lie detection technologies can make any “successive hurdles” or multi-step personnel screening process much more efficient, effective and accurate. The Outcome Confidence of the test result is more informative than accuracy. Outcome confidence is determined by the types and number of errors the test produces. That means it is a function of test accuracy and the base rates of guilt.
“The topics of base rates and outcome confidence are often overlooked in basic polygraph school and even in advanced training seminars,” said Handler. “My hope is to give new and experienced examiners another look at these concepts so they may appreciate how these concepts affect the confidence in their work product. I also want to open the door to dialogue about accuracy limits and successive hurdles.”
By applying polygraph as a second testing method under a particular use case, Handler’s research showed the outcome confidence of failing a deception detection test increased from 63 to 91 percent. In a group with a low base rate, for those who pass an EyeDetect exam, the outcome confidence is already high at 95 percent; however, when a subject also passes a polygraph exam, then the confidence outcome of the combined tests reaches 99 percent.
“This is game-changing news for the lie detection industry and for any entity concerned about accurately screening individuals for past criminal or unethical behaviors,” said Converus President and CEO Todd Mickelsen.
According to Mickelsen, companies and government agencies throughout Latin America have been using EyeDetect for pre-employment screening of job candidates and periodic testing of current employees since late 2014. Converus recently began offering EyeDetect to the U.S. market, claiming it’s not only ideal for screening job candidates in government, law enforcement and corrections, but also visa applicants, immigrants and parolees.
For more information, visit www.converus.com.
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Converus (“with truth”) is committed to providing trustworthy credibility assessment solutions. Its flagship product, EyeDetect® is the first ocular-motor deception detection solution. It’s an accurate, cost-effective, efficient, secure and nonintrusive method that detects deception in 30 minutes by analyzing eye behavior. The same scientists credited with computerizing the polygraph in 1991 developed EyeDetect. It’s a new way for organizations to manage risk and ensure workplace integrity, and for law enforcement agencies and governments to detect deception. Ultimately, it helps protect countries, corporations and communities from corruption, fraud and threats. Converus is headquartered in Lehi, Utah. Visit www.converus.com.
Press Contact: Jeff Pizzino, APR / +1 480.606.8292